After a disappointing year, can Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes return to being a top-three fantasy option in the 2024 season?

It feels strange to talk about Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes “rebounding” the year after he won the Super Bowl. But Super Bowl wins don’t do anything for fantasy football managers.

Mahomes did not live up to expectations last year. Does that make him a value in 2024 Best Ball drafts?

Patrick Mahomes’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook

For the first five years of Mahomes’ career (excluding his rookie year where he backed up QB Alex Smith), he never averaged below 20 fantasy points per game. Last season, Mahomes averaged just 18.4 points per game, finishing lower than the overall QB6 for the first time in his career (he finished QB10).

With NFL defenses hyper-focused on taking away the deep ball, Mahomes was forced to just take what the defense gave him. As a result, he averaged a career-worst 7.0 yards per attempt.

Mahomes also threw a mere 27 touchdowns. This is after throwing no fewer than 37 in each of the previous three seasons.

A big part of the problem is the Chiefs simply weren’t a very good offense. They won the Super Bowl because this was the best defense during Mahomes’ tenure and because Mahomes is the best player in the history of the sport. When it matters most, he gets it done.

In the regular season, the Chiefs scored a mere 37 offensive touchdowns. By comparison, they scored 59 in 2022 and 53 in 2021. Saddled with the worst wide receiver corps of his career, Mahomes couldn’t be as prolific as he was when WR Tyreek Hill was out there. He couldn’t quite even be as good as he was with JuJu Smith-Schuster as his WR1.

Mahomes was still a fantasy QB1, but given what he cost in fantasy drafts, he was nowhere near worth it as he posted just five games of 20+ fantasy points the entire season. Three of them came in the first three weeks.

From Week 4 through the end of the year, the only game in which Mahomes scored more than 20.8 fantasy points was his 34.9-point explosion in Week 7 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Let’s compare that to his previous season, where he recorded five games of 30+ fantasy points and a total of 12 games over 20.

Should You Draft Mahomes in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?

For fantasy managers to believe in Mahomes for fantasy purposes, the Chiefs absolutely must do something at wide receiver. Their young, promising WR Rashee Rice needs help. If he doesn’t get it, then I will have a very hard time pushing the button on Mahomes in any format this season.

With that being said, Best Ball drafters have an advantage right now. Free agency has yet to occur. The NFL Draft has yet to occur. If the Chiefs sign someone like Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Evans or Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr., Mahomes’ price tag is going to increase.

KEEP READING: Fantasy Football Best Ball Strategy

Right now, the Chiefs QB is the cheapest he’s been since his first year as a starter. He’s going well behind Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, and Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. This is still the best quarterback in the league, who already has three seasons averaging 25+ fantasy points per game.

After what we saw last season, there’s no way I’d be willing to take Mahomes in the second or third round. But if he stays in the fourth, given the uncertainty of the running backs and wide receivers in that range, Mahomes looks mighty enticing, especially in Best Ball drafts.

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.

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