ECR stands for “Expert Consensus Ranking,” which means the average ranks of the fantasy baseball industry and is typically similar to ADP (which differs from site to site). This column will highlight some big differences between ECR and my own hitter ranks. Go here for my pitchers.
Tatís hit 25 homers, stole 29 bases and scored 90+ runs over just 141 games in something of a disappointing season (while returning from major surgeries) last year. He also hadn’t faced major league pitching since 2021 thanks to a suspension. His first (138 wRC+) and second-half (86) splits don’t perfectly fit the health narrative given his decline after the All-Star break, but it’s safe to say Tatís was nowhere close to 100% throughout 2023. He elected to play in the Winter League during the offseason, and this is someone who went 42/25 in just 130 games as a 22-year-old.
De La Cruz is this year’s most polarizing fantasy player, with his range of outcomes including him going 25/50 to being demoted to the minors. De La Cruz posted a .626 OPS and a 62 wRC+ in the second half last season, but the 21-year-old hit 13 homers and swiped 35 bags in fewer than 100 games anyway. De La Cruz’s athleticism is unmatched as he recorded MLB’s top sprint speed, the hardest recorded infield throw in Statcast history and the third-hardest hit ball as a rookie.
The Reds have a bunch of young talent, but De La Cruz has emerged as the face of the franchise, and his strong defense means it’s unlikely he’s sent down to the minors even if his bat slumps. De La Cruz gets to play in one of the league’s most extreme hitter’s parks, yet he somehow performed far worse at home (60 wRC+) compared to on the road (106) last year — something that figures to regress in 2024. De La Cruz made some changes at the plate over the final month of last season, when his BB% shot up thanks in part to him swinging at a league-low rate. He’s a batting average risk and looks like he weighs 150 pounds – he’s actually listed at 6-foot-5, 200 pounds – so there’s no denying his unsafe floor. But there’s also “league winner” potential if the 22-year-old shows growth and makes further adjustments (or even just plays more than projected).
